Riding The Cashless Trend (Pax Global Tech.), Jun. 2020

Company: PAX GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY Ltd. (327)

Sector: Technology Hardware

Price (June 5th, 2020): HK$3

Target price (12m): HK$4.5

Expected Share Price Return: 50%

Dividend Yield: 3.3%

Investment Risk: Medium

Market Cap.: HK$3.25bn (US$412m)

Rationale for investment

  • Riding on the global cashless trend, accelerate the overseas business and boost PAX’s market share
  • The stock is traded at 5.3x P/E discounted by a half versus the industry P/E and pays regular dividends
  • POS terminals market is poised to grow at a CAGR of about 9% during the period 2021-2024

Profile

PAX Global Technology Limited (PAX) is a leading international supplier of secure electronic payment terminal hardware and transactional software services listed in Hong Kong.  Headquartered in Hong Kong, PAX runs R&D and operational center mainly in Shenzhen, China and has subsidiaries in Florida – USA, Milan – Italy, Japan and India. PAX develop and sells countertop and mobile EFT-POS terminals which are able to process a wide range of electronic payment types.

Valuation

POS terminals market is estimated to grow at a CAGR of about 9% during the period 2021-2024. PAX revenues increased 12% to HK$4.93B ($636m) and net income increased 19% to HK$624m ($80m) in 2019. I expect flattish top line and profit in 2020 due to Covid19 disruption and 10% p.a. growth for 2021-2024. Operating margin stays around 15%. Company is currently trading at an undemanding 5.3x P/E and 0.69 P/B multiples, while the industry is trading at 10x PE and 2.4 P/B.  I believe higher P/E valuation multiple is justified for the third largest POS global provider in a fragmented industry. I believe 8x P/E multiple is justified against 2020 earnings a 20% discount to the peers for producing in China. I estimate net income of HK$630m ($80m) in 2020. I set PAX target price at HK@4.5 based on a P/E of 8x 2020 earnings.

Investment Risks

  • Trade war between China and US may disrupt supply chains;
  • Corporate governance and policy issues in China may keep the stock at lower valuation for long time;
  • Competitors enter the space in a fragmented industry and execute better.

I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog. Please see Disclaimer.

If you love the articles I write, follow my blog and never miss another investment opportunity!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this:
search previous next tag category expand menu location phone mail time cart zoom edit close