Model Portfolio

Please see below latest model portfolio. Consult the blog archive for details on each name and the disclaimer:

Multi-Asset Passive Portfolio

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Portfolio Updates (reverse chronological order):

  • BAE SYSTEMS sold for profit at GBP810 (+56%) due to limited upside – Sep. 2022;
  • FOSUN price discount to NAV has not reduced. Recently found out that value for non listed holding is not at reported as market value, but at cost and no major listings to justify a lower discount. Hence my target discount to NAV increased to 70%, hence new target price is $8.4/share-Aug 2022;
  • PAX Global Tech. Published impresive business results for Sem.1 2022. Sold half of position @ HKD8.1/share (+168% profit taken). Target price remains the same HK$10/sh.- Aug.2022
  • Bausch Health Companies Inc. decreased Target Price to $16 as the business exprienced worse than expected financials, high leverage and rating downgrades. The move towards separating its eye care and traditional pharma franchises is not progressing. This is a position with a high risk profile- July 2022;
  • ILLUMINA position reopened at $234/share – May 2022;
  • FOSUN reopened the position and then doubled down in May at HK$7.48. Price discount to NAV is at a record high (70%+). NAV/share was 28.1/share as of end 2021 after a nice increase in all sectors. I believe value unlocking through accelerated asset divestment/IPOs should drive a re-rating of the stock to a discount to NAV of 60%, hence new target price is HKD14/share -May 2022;
  • CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate (IGR). Research show global real estate companies trade in average at 4% average discount to value of their holdings hence my new target price is $9.1 Sold half of position at this price realizing +73% total return-Apr. 2022;
  • BAIOO was affected by China crackdown on online games last year hence I closed the position for tactical reasons in Q4 2021. I reopened the position at HK$0.5 with a target price of HK$0.97. The underlying fundamentals for the gaming industry look very good.- Apr.2022
  • ZHONGZHI reopened the position @ HK$0.84. A one off provision for real estate exposure and higher SG&A costs cut 2021 profit by 62% yoy, but medium term investment case remains strong. New production facility was finalized in Q4 2021 – Mar .2022
  • BAE SYSTEMS target price increased from GBP638 to to GBP952. I updated latest financials. My P/E target of 19x remains the same – Feb. 2022;
  • PAX Global Tech. I doubled the exposure at HK$5.3/share taking account of an impresive business outlook. Target price remained the same HK$10/sh.- Jan.2022
  • Revance (RVNC) – U.S. Food and Drug Administration had declined to approve its long-acting injectable drug to treat moderate to severe frown lines, sending its shares plunging. FDA pointed to “deficiencies” related to the regulator’s inspection of Revance’s manufacturing site. I estimate a 12 months delay in approbal hence my new target price was discounted by 20% to $27 in Oct.21. Doubled the exposure in Jan. 2022
  • ZHONGZHI I closed the position at a a loss @ $0.95 for tactical reasons- Dec.2021
  • BEST Inc. target price decreased to $2.2. Third quarter missed forecasts and revenue fell short of expectations again. Company aims to achieve breakeven only in 2022. I closed the position at a a loss @ $1.1 – Nov. 2021
  • CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate (IGR) target price updated to $9.6 representing a 4% discount to latest NAV.  Research show global real estate companies traded at 4% average discount to value of their holdings over last 10y – Nov. 2021;
  • NAK Kazatomprom I took profit on the entire position @ $32/share (+114% profit) -June 2021
  • PAX Global Tech. I further increased Target Price to $10/share to account for an impresive 44% profit growth in 2021. Target price derived from an average industry P/E of 12x-May 2021;
  • Bausch Health Companies Inc. increased Target Price from $26 to $32 as the business has successfully transitioned away from legacy issues and moves towards separating its eye care and traditional pharma franchises-May 2021 ;
  • BEST Inc. Doubled down the exposure 500 sh. at $1.9/share as price upside is significant-Mar. 2021
  • BAIOO looks ripe for profit taking after reaching +160% increase in 3 months. I am taking profit at prices over HK$2.2/share. Target price updated to $2/share- Feb.2021;
  • Stratasys position closed with +175% profit taking at $43.9/share. 3D printing industry is gaining traction. Company announced that it expects to report strong revenue growth as COVID-19 has created business opportunities that 3D printing is well-suited to address, but I can not justify current valuation – Feb..2021;
  • Tesla (TSLA) valuation updated in line with latest financials. My most optimistic scenario leads to a target price of $611; Sales estimates increased, EV/Sales 2031 valuation target increased to 6.3x (an average between and auto producer and a technology company) and no discount for execution risk ; this position is not included in the investable portfolio as it is a potential short. See full rationale in post Tesla’s Cultlike Valuation – Jan. 2021;
  • Kazatomprom target price increased to $26. I maintained EV/EBITDA multiple target of 9x and increased 2021 EBITDA estimate to KZT360bn ($857m) following uranium price increase to over $30 US$/lb . I also expect 10% dividend yield in 2021 – Jan.2021
  • Revance (RVNC) target price increased to $33.7 as I increased target 2026 EV/Sales multiple from 4.5x to 5.5x in line with biotech sector – Jan.2021
  • BEST Inc. target price decreased to $4.2 due to disappointing short term outlook (2021E EBITDA-RMB0.8bn and EPS-RMB0.9),  intensifying competition and execution risks given multiple business. Added back exposure up to $1k at $2/share as price upside is significant-Dec. 2020
  • FOSUN sold entire position at HKD11.2/share. Price discount to NAV not reducing as estimated (still over 50%), no major listings to justify a lower discount and poor performance of turism sector to continue-Dec. 2020;
  • PAX Global Tech. very good news, company published a profit alert for 40%+ higher profit in 2020 vs. 2019 on the back of overseas revenue growth specially with Android POS solutions. I further increased Target Price from $5.4 to $6.5 to partially account for revenue growth in my valuation- Dec. 2020;
  • CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate (IGR) target price increased to $7.5 representing a 4% discount to latest NAV.  Research show global real estate companies traded at 4% average discount to value of their holdings  over last 10y – Nov. 2020;
  • FOSUN sold half of position @ HK$11; target price exceeded and poor outlook for tourism sector -Nov. 2020;
  • PAX Global Tech. performed very well in line with the industry. I increased Target Price from $4.5 to $5.4, representing a 20% discount to latest industry PE of 12x- Oct.2020; Sold half of position @ HK$5.3 (76% profit) as remaining upside is limited – Nov. 2020;
  • Revance (RVNC) – sold half of the position @ $30.5/share as my target price was exceeded in 9 months (93%+ profit taking) – Sep. 2020
  • BEST Inc. target price decreased to $4.7 due to disappointing financial results (2021E EBITDA-RMB0.9bn and EPS-RMB1),  intensifying competition and early stage development of its new businesses and execution risks given multiple business – Sep. 2020
  • FOSUN target price updated to HKD10.3 derived using a 60% discount over NAV of HKD25.67 as of 31.07.2020. No listings to justify a lower discount and noted poor performance of turism sector-Aug. 2020;
  • British American Tobacco (BAT) target price updated to GBP42/US$53 derived using a 20% discount over Tobacco peers giving an implied P/E of 12x for BAT. The 7% sustainable dividend yield is there to stay. See more details in post Robust Dividend by Transforming Tobacco Industry – July 2020;
  • CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate (IGR) target price updated to $7.0 representing a 4% discount to latest NAV.  Research show global real estate companies traded at 4% average discount to value of their holdings  over last 10y – July 2020;
  • Tesla (TSLA) stock sold short at $930/share with a stop loss at $1030/share and target price $696 (-25%). See rationale in post Tesla’s Cultlike Valuation, Feb. 2020; this position is not included in the investable portfolio as the model portfolio is long only – June 2020; position closed by stop loss;
  • Kazatomprom (KAP) added $1k to position@ $13.75/share taking advantage of majority shareholder selling stock – June 2020;
  • Illumina sold at $357 (+30% profit taking) as my target price ($345) was exceeded 3 months after reopened the position – May 2020;

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