2019 Annual Review

Thank you for following my blog. I have started writing and sharing investment ideas in January 2019 in order to have more disciplined approach to my personal investments and share ideas. I then encouraged friends, professionals, private investors and students to follow my blog (41+ registered followers).

It is free, fun and educational. It was also profitable in 2019.

Investment Performance 2019

My investment ideas produced an 30% time-weighted return and 18% XIRR return in US$ terms as of Dec. 31st, 2019 . For comparaison Vanguard Total Stock Market Index return was 27% in 2019.

Let’s take a look at my annual performance in more detail.  Average holding period for positions was 246 days. Internal Rate of Return (XIRR) was calculated for an amount of $1,000 invested in each stock rounded for the real number of shares. I assumed $2/trade transactions costs. I have also included return from dividends. About 30% of total return came from dividends.

I collected a diverse portfolio of companies and sectors: 4 US listed companies (IGR, ILMN, BTI and BEST), 1 based in China and listed in Hong Kong (Fosun), 1 listed Singapore with business in US (EAGL) and 1 company from Kazakhstan listed in UK in form of GDR (Kazatomprom).

Please see portfolio details below:

Snapshot as of 1.01.2020

Investment Objective, Style and Tools

  • My objective is to make a return of 15-20% a year from a high conviction, low turnover and concentrated portfolio of less than 10 names;
  • In general, I am looking for 20%+ return p. a. on each name including dividends, when initiating the position. I expect that some investments should not perform as expected;
  • I have published 7 investment ideas in 2019 and one was also sold with a 23% profit (ILMN);
  • I was rather conservative in my selection for the blog, as I was pessimistic about the overall market in 2019. However, market over-performed most expectations;
  • All my investment ideas registered virtually positive total return in 2019. This is nice, but also confirms that I was conservative when choosing names for the blog;
  • I have employed more of a value investment style with a special focus on capital preservation, “fallen angels”and dividend players. Note that value style under-performed growth style in 2019;
  • About half of the names pay a regular and sustainable dividend. This was my hedge in case markets turned south in 2019;
  • Later in the year, I also assigned judgmentally a risk profile for each investment (low/medium/high) as a measure of volatility and risks towards reaching my target price;
  • I use Interactive Brokers as global broker and the site www.investing.com and www.stocks.cafe for portfolio monitoring;
  • All costs for site design, hosting and development are supported from my pocket.

Plans for 2020

  • Target annual return of min. 15% a year from a concentrated portfolio of less than 15 names;
  • Publish at least one new investment idea per quarter, but aim towards publishing one idea per month;
  • I plan to be more courageous in terms of investment ideas published with higher upside and higher risk.

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