Blog Archive

Portfolio Updates (reverse chronological order):

Baioo is not investible anymore for EU investors due to its size, hence I liquidated the position-Nov.2024;
Daqo New Energy appreciated 63% in 2 months exceeding my target price. I think is a good time to take some profit at $26/share- Oct. 2024;
Target price for all China companies discounted by 20% due to political risks – Sep. 2024;
Botox Reloaded (Revance Therapeutics). Crown company announced will acquire all of Revance’s outstanding shares for $6.66 apiece, which represents an 111% premium to Revance’s 60-day volume-weighted average price. I sold at $6.59/share. Luckily, I doubled down the position a few days before @ 2.83/share – Aug. 2024
Profit taken on NYCB at $11.5/share (+37% in 4 months)-July 2024
Sold British American Tobacco (BATS / BTI) position at $31. The 9-10% dividend yield was not sufficient to achieve my return target over the past 5 years, hence I exited position with a total return of +13% – May 2024;
NYCB’s shares have lost nearly two-thirds of their value following a sell-off after the bank’s dismal Jan. 31 earnings report, a 70% cut to its dividend and ratings downgrade. P/BV is at 0.3x compared to peer average 0.8x. Furthermore, I believe the EUR1bn capital raise will alleviate investor and depositor concerns. I felt there is a good entry point without doing a detailed valuation. I set the target price at USD5.2-Mar.2024;
Georgia Capital profit taken on half of position at GBP12.36/share (+84% gain in 8 months)- Feb. 2024;
Office Property Income Trust. Cut target price to $8 and reduced exposure by 50%. Office business in US is not doing well- Jan. 2024;
Please see Blog Archive for history
Botox Reloaded (Revance Therapeutics), reopen the position at $7.3 with a target price of $10.7. Valuation is based on a price/sales long term multiple of 4.3x. When next-generation Botox similar was approved by FDA, I took profit at USD30.5/share (+95%) in Oct. 2022. I revisit the “crime scene”- Nov.2023;
Kazatomprom profit taken at $42 (+62%) – Oct. 2023;
Zhongzhi Pharmaceutical profit taken at $1.34 (+60%) – Sep. 2023;
Bausch Health Companies Inc. closed the position. Separating its eye care and traditional pharma franchises did not create shareholders value, but litigations – Aug. 2023;
Kazatomprom reopened with a target price of $42. EV/EBITDA multiple target of 7x and 2023 EBITDA estimate to KZT542bn ($1.2bn). I also expect 7% dividend yield in 2023 – May 2023;
Georgia Capital target price is based on a 40% discount to current NAV of GBP22.2. I expect the NAV to increase by min. 5% yoy in line with Georgian economy. Hence my new 12m target price is GBP14 – May 2023;
Office Property Income Trust. Double down the exposure at $7.8. The stock registered a large drop due to dividend cut and merger announcement with DHC. New dividend yield is at 12% – Apr. 2023;
PAX Global Tech. Published impressive business results for 2022: +17% net profit and +27% dividend/share. Target price remain the same HK$10/share – Mar. 2023;
CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate (IGR). Profit taken on this dividend payer. I collected a double digit yearly dividend yield for more than 4 years and sold in profit. The instrument is no longer available to retail clients in Europe as it does not publish all required docs. I want the ideas on this blog to be accessible to any investor – Mar. 2023;
Bausch Health Companies Inc. reopened the position. A high risk bet that separating its eye care and traditional pharma franchises will create shareholders value – Feb. 2023;
CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate (IGR). Research show global real estate companies trade in average at 4% average discount to value of their holdings hence my new target price is $6.9 -Feb. 2023;
Revance (RVNC) – Next-generation Botox similar approved by FDA. Profit taken at USD30.5/share (+95%)- Oct. 2022;
BAE SYSTEMS sold for profit at GBP810 (+56%) due to limited upside – Sep. 2022;
FOSUN price discount to NAV has not reduced. Recently found out that value for non listed holding is not at reported as market value, but at cost and no major listings to justify a lower discount. Hence my target discount to NAV increased to 70%, hence new target price is $8.4/share-Aug 2022
PAX Global Tech. Published impresive business results for Sem.1 2022. Sold half of position @ HKD8.1/share (+168% profit taken). Target price remains the same HK$10/sh.- Aug.2022;
British American Tobacco (BAT) sold half of position @ USD44.4/share. It is a solid stock with a sustinable divident yield of 7%+, but upside is limited. See more details in post Robust Dividend by Transforming Tobacco Industry – June 2022;
ILLUMINA position reopened at $234/share – May 2022;
FOSUN reopened the position and then doubled down in May at HK$7.48. Price discount to NAV is at a record high (70%+). NAV/share was 28.1/share as of end 2021 after a nice increase in all sectors. I believe value unlocking through accelerated asset divestment/IPOs should drive a re-rating of the stock to a discount to NAV of 60%, hence new target price is HKD14/share -May 2022;

CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate (IGR). Research show global real estate companies trade in average at 4% average discount to value of their holdings hence my new target price is $9.1 Sold half of position at this price realizing +73% total return-Apr. 2022;
BAIOO was affected by China crackdown on online games last year hence I closed the position for tactical reasons in Q4 2021. I reopened the position at HK$0.5 with a target price of HK$0.97. The underlying fundamentals for the gaming industry look very good.- Apr.2022
ZHONGZHI reopened the position @ HK$0.84. A one off provision for real estate exposure and higher SG&A costs cut 2021 profit by 62% yoy, but medium term investment case remains strong. New production facility was finalized in Q4 2021 – Mar .2022
BAE SYSTEMS target price increased from GBP638 to to GBP952. I updated latest financials. My P/E target of 19x remains the same – Feb. 2022;
PAX Global Tech. I doubled the exposure at HK$5.3/share taking account of an impressive business outlook. Target price remained the same HK$10/sh.- Jan.2022
Revance (RVNC) – U.S. Food and Drug Administration had declined to approve its long-acting injectable drug to treat moderate to severe frown lines, sending its shares plunging. FDA pointed to “deficiencies” related to the regulator’s inspection of Revance’s manufacturing site. I estimate a 12 months delay in approbal hence my new target price was discounted by 20% to $27 in Oct.21. Doubled the exposure in Jan. 2022
ZHONGZHI I closed the position at a a loss @ $0.95 for tactical reasons- Dec.2021
BEST Inc. target price decreased to $2.2. Third quarter missed forecasts and revenue fell short of expectations again. Company aims to achieve breakeven only in 2022. I closed the position at a a loss @ $1.1 – Nov. 2021
CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate (IGR) target price updated to $9.6 representing a 4% discount to latest NAV. Research show global real estate companies traded at 4% average discount to value of their holdings over last 10y – Nov. 2021;
NAK Kazatomprom I took profit on the entire position @ $32/share (+114% profit) -June 2021
PAX Global Tech. I further increased Target Price to $10/share to account for an impresive 44% profit growth in 2021. Target price derived from an average industry P/E of 12x-May 2021;
Bausch Health Companies Inc. increased Target Price from $26 to $32 as the business has successfully transitioned away from legacy issues and moves towards separating its eye care and traditional pharma franchises-May 2021 ;
BEST Inc. Doubled down the exposure 500 sh. at $1.9/share as price upside is significant-Mar. 2021
BAIO O looks ripe for profit taking after reaching +160% increase in 3 months. I am taking profit at prices over HK$2.2/share. Target price updated to $2/share- Feb.2021;
Stratasys position closed with +175% profit taking at $43.9/share. 3D printing industry is gaining traction. Company announced that it expects to report strong revenue growth as COVID-19 has created business opportunities that 3D printing is well-suited to address, but I can not justify current valuation – Feb..2021;
Tesla (TSLA) valuation updated in line with latest financials. My most optimistic scenario leads to a target price of $611; Sales estimates increased, EV/Sales 2031 valuation target increased to 6.3x (an average between and auto producer and a technology company) and no discount for execution risk ; this position is not included in the investable portfolio as it is a potential short. See full rationale in post Tesla’s Cultlike Valuation – Jan. 2021;
Kazatomprom target price increased to $26. I maintained EV/EBITDA multiple target of 9x and increased 2021 EBITDA estimate to KZT360bn ($857m) following uranium price increase to over $30 US$/lb . I also expect 10% dividend yield in 2021 – Jan.2021
Revance (RVNC) target price increased to $33.7 as I increased target 2026 EV/Sales multiple from 4.5x to 5.5x in line with biotech sector – Jan.2021
BEST Inc. target price decreased to $4.2 due to disappointing short term outlook (2021E EBITDA-RMB0.8bn and EPS-RMB0.9), intensifying competition and execution risks given multiple business. Added back exposure up to $1k at $2/share as price upside is significant-Dec. 2020
FOSUN sold entire position at HKD11.2/share. Price discount to NAV not reducing as estimated (still over 50%), no major listings to justify a lower discount and poor performance of turism sector to continue-Dec. 2020;
PAX Global Tech. very good news, company published a profit alert for 40%+ higher profit in 2020 vs. 2019 on the back of overseas revenue growth specially with Android POS solutions. I further increased Target Price from $5.4 to $6.5 to partially account for revenue growth in my valuation- Dec. 2020;
CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate (IGR) target price increased to $7.5 representing a 4% discount to latest NAV. Research show global real estate companies traded at 4% average discount to value of their holdings over last 10y – Nov. 2020;
FOSUN sold half of position @ HK$11; target price exceeded and poor outlook for tourism sector -Nov. 2020;
PAX Global Tech. performed very well in line with the industry. I increased Target Price from $4.5 to $5.4, representing a 20% discount to latest industry PE of 12x- Oct.2020; Sold half of position @ HK$5.3 (76% profit) as remaining upside is limited – Nov. 2020;
Revance (RVNC) – sold half of the position @ $30.5/share as my target price was exceeded in 9 months (93%+ profit taking) – Sep. 2020
BEST Inc. target price decreased to $4.7 due to disappointing financial results (2021E EBITDA-RMB0.9bn and EPS-RMB1), intensifying competition and early stage development of its new businesses and execution risks given multiple business – Sep. 2020
Revance (RVNC) target price increased to $29 as I eliminated the 10% discount for my valuation scenario. See valuation in post Botox Reloaded (Revance Therapeutics), Jan. 2020 – Sep. 2020
FOSUN target price updated to HKD10.3 derived using a 60% discount over NAV of HKD25.67 as of 31.07.2020. No listings to justify a lower discount and noted poor performance of turism sector-Aug. 2020;
British American Tobacco (BAT) target price updated to GBP42/US$53 derived using a 20% discount over Tobacco peers giving an implied P/E of 12x for BAT. The 7% sustainable dividend yield is there to stay. See more details in post Robust Dividend by Transforming Tobacco Industry – July 2020;
CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate (IGR) target price updated to $7.0 representing a 4% discount to latest NAV. Research show global real estate companies traded at 4% average discount to value of their holdings over last 10y – July 2020;
Revance (RVNC) target price increased to $25.3 as I increased the probability of my scenario from 80% to 90%. See valuation in post Botox Reloaded (Revance Therapeutics), Jan. 2020 – June 2020
Tesla (TSLA) stock sold short at $930/share with a stop loss at $1030/share and target price $696 (-25%). See rationale in post Tesla’s Cultlike Valuation, Feb. 2020; this position is not included in the investable portfolio as the model portfolio is long only – June 2020; position closed by stop loss;
Kazatomprom (KAP) added $1k to position@ $13.75/share taking advantage of majority shareholder selling stock – June 2020;
CBRE Clarion Global Real Estate (IGR) – Doubled down the exposure (added $1k to position) @$4.8/share. See rationale in post Portfolio Update In Time Of COVID, Apr. 2020;
Illumina sold at $357 (+30% profit taking) as my target price ($345) was exceeded 3 months after reopened the position – May 2020;

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